Today’s Cryptocurrency analysis on behalf of Rania Gule Market Analyst at XS.com
The price of Bitcoin rose and touched the $36,000 level yesterday, likely influenced by the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve to temporarily halt interest rate hikes, with the possibility of some future increases. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $35,283, up 1.7% over the past 24 hours after breaking through the $35,000 level, which had been a barrier to Bitcoin’s rise over the past two weeks. I believe that the news of MicroStrategy’s acquisition of 155 Bitcoin and expanding its holdings to over $5.5 billion has significantly contributed to the increase in Cryptocurrency prices, led by Bitcoin.
The current market capitalization of Cryptocurrencies is $1.35 trillion and with expectations of positive regulatory developments, such as Ripple winning its legal case or BlackRock’s BTC ETF approval, this could strengthen the Crypto market further. This is especially true after the U.S. central bank temporarily paused interest rate hikes, leaving the rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell left room for potential future increases based on overall economic conditions.
It’s worth noting that the U.S. economic activity has surged in the third quarter of 2023, and Federal Reserve officials have not ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes in upcoming meetings, keeping in mind the goal of reducing inflation to 2%. Bitcoin’s price has risen sharply in parallel with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high and stable for an extended period. Although Powell warned against ruling out another interest rate hike at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December, cryptocurrency and stock markets witnessed significant gains due to their inverse relationship with interest rates.
In my opinion, interest rate hikes are a negative factor for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, as they may push investors toward relatively safer options. Therefore, Bitcoin has experienced several declines this year when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Additionally, MicroStrategy’s acquisition of new Bitcoin holdings may play a role in boosting Bitcoin prices. The company now owns 158,400 Bitcoin, equivalent to over $5.5 billion at the current price.
I believe that the positive performance of Bitcoin is primarily a result of the positive sentiment prevailing in the Crypto asset market recently. The global market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has reached $1.35 trillion, especially with many Cryptocurrencies like Ripple, Solana, Avalanche, and others staying in the positive price territory, encouraging further increases.
I also expect that regulated exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States will be the primary driver and turning point for cryptocurrencies, especially after the increased expectations of the Securities and Exchange Commission approving such projects by late 2023 and early 2024. Additionally, the next Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 2024, is likely to cause high market volatility, potentially leading to the end of Bitcoin mining through computer devices that currently secure the network.
After the halving event, I believe the demand for Bitcoin through regulated ETFs will increase to the extent that it could surpass miners’ sales by 6-7 times, and this will be balanced through Bitcoin ETFs, accounting for 9-10% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply by 2028.